Jonathan McCready: What a season 2024 promises to be in AMA Supercross. It’s one of the deepest fields of all-time with most of the title contenders having some sort of change coming into the season! Jett Lawrence is coming in with ALL the hype, pretty much at the James Stewart level in 2005 or Ricky Carmichael in 1999 when they made their highly anticipated moves to the premier class but the advantage he has is his experience last year on the 450 that saw him go undefeated outdoors in the US then win SMX, he hasn’t lost a title yet on the 450 heading into his AMA 450 rookie supercross season.
Lawrence is one of the favourites but he is still a rookie and you have to think the other riders will not want another 2022 motocross season that saw them all play second fiddle to the kid. He isn’t the champ but he will have a target on his back! Yet, for me, Jett’s only weakness is his inexperience, he has the perfect riding style of Stefan Everts and the ruthless mindset of Ricky Carmicheal the cold decision making in the heat of battle like Jeremy McGrath had in supercross.
Technical superiority, cold, calm and calculated. Lawrence has the best attributes of three of the greatest riders in history. The rest better not let him get on a roll with his confidence already sky high – he is already mentioning he’s going after McGrath’s recrod of 72 wins!
For me the biggest challenger to Jett is Eli Tomac. Eli had basically got the 2022 championship sewn up until that Achilles snapped and has publicly declared he wants revenge, a motivated Tomac with all that experience against Lawrence in what could be their only championship face-off could be one for the ages.
Ricky Carmichael said the way to beat Everts, McGrath and Reed was to ride on the edge to a level they weren’t comfortable because they can’t ride over their limit. Tomac is maybe the only guy who could consistently ride that limit with the speed to trouble Jett and take him to the edge, and he might have to do just that to be the 20 year old Honda rookie.
Chase Sexton is coming in with a lot to prove, Tomac’s injury and Jett’s outdoor dominance kind of put his 2022 supercross title in the shade more than it probably should have and now Sexton is the main man on the KTM team – but has he got the bike to defend his title? That’s the biggest question mark right now, Sexton has the speed and the ability but Jett and Eli will be on his mind after what happened in 2022 and until he sees how his KTM feels in race competition, there must be some unknown in his mind about the choice to go KTM.
Cooper Webb is in a similar situation with the move to Yamaha after complaining about his comfort level on KTM. Now that he has the same bike as Tomac, there are no excuses but is he comfortable enough on the bike the go for the title? No-one will want Jett coming in and winning right away so building into the season might not be an option if they want to show Jett what’s up and halt his momentum.
Then there is Ken Roczen, who stunned the world and probably Suzuki with his speed last year! Now, with a WSX title under his belt and year of race testing in supercross, Roczen should be a week to week contender for podiums and wins, I wouldn’t rule him out as a title contender.
Jason Anderson shouldn’t be forgotten about either if he can get back to the form he had in 2021, if gets the starts and avoids on track wars. Anderson, like Roczen, has the skill to be there every week.
And don’t forget Dylan Ferrandis, he’s on the Phoenix Honda but seems very happy with the bike, with some good starts Ferrandis might finally show his 250 indoor speed on the 450. Adam Cianciarulo is another with speed but the question mark his his wrist while Justin Barcia rode one of his best season’s ever last year but two big injuries including that SMX crash leaves a question mark on how ready he will be at A1 – but he loves that place!
Malcolm Stewart is apparantly flying at the test track, his teammate Christian Craig is reportedly much happier with his bike now and we still haven’t got to the other Lawerence!
Hunter doesn’t have the hype of Jett but I think he will be really, really good this season and maybe top five in the championship. He has the technique and the confidence on the 450 to be up there and showed in Paris is not far away from the pace of his younger brother. Hunter sees that pace every day and knows he has the same skill level, if he can avoid the mistakes, he will be strong this year.
Justin Cooper rode some 450 race last year so has a good eye on what a 450 supercross is all about and should be consistent top ten but will he have the speed of the top five?
And, of course, we have the biggest rookie of them all racing the first three round, Jorge Prado, who has only had 4-6 weeks even riding supercross! The brave but confident and very technically capable, MXGP world champ is jumping straight into the deep end and going into the premier class at round one with everybody fit in one of the toughest field’s in supercross history! Prado is so smooth that riding the track should be no problem, but racing supercross is different and with riders so experienced, fast and aggressive, it will be interesting to see how Prado adapts especially if he gets a start and has the intensity of the main players around him. But he deserves huge respect for even trying this, and if anyone from MXGP can make it work in such a short time frame it is Jorge Prado, he is on Jett’s level of technical ability.
Added to the mix is Beta, a new manufacturer with Benny Bloss and the very capable Colt Nichols on-board with Nichols recently winning the final race of the WSX in style. But can Beta give him a bike to compete in the top 5/10? More questions to be answered!
Add in the always aggressive Vince Friese, Shane McElrath and a guy who should have won a race last year and might get it this year, Aaron Plessinger, and the field is absolutely stacked with champions!
A1 can’t come soon enough!
Predictions:
A1:
- Jett Lawrence
- Ken Roczen
- Eli Tomac
Championship:
- Jett Lawrence
- Eli Tomac
- Chase Sexton
Andy McKinstry: I’ll keep mine short and sweet! Jett Lawrence is the real deal and the way he rides is perfect – it looks like he isn’t even trying the majority of the time. That makes him very dangerous and I am backing him to win the title – Eli Tomac will certainly have something to say about that though!
It’s going to be cool to see Lawrence battle against Tomac and thank goodness the latter didn’t retire – they ride completely different styles so it’s going to be interesting to see who is the most comfortable riding on the edge and of course starts will be important.
Another main contender I would say is Chase Sexton who of course won the title last year and at KTM is going to be the main man. A lot of pressure but even though he’s defending champion all the talk is about Tomac and Lawrence so that might just help him despite being reigning champion!
Cooper Webb you can never rule out with his determination and he is ruthless. He is always a fun watch and is capable of winning. The question is can he outright beat Tomac and Lawrence enough to win the title?
Back on the Suzuki, Ken Roczen has been great and was a new man in 2023 after a tough few years on the Honda so he can certainly still win main events.
Predictions:
A1:
- Eli Tomac
- Jett Lawrence
- Cooper Webb
Championship:
- Jett Lawrence
- Eli Tomac
- Chase Sexton
