Three riders, six rounds, and 38 points are key statistics that encompass the end of a captivating 2024 MXGP championship between three title titans with 13 world championships between them.
Five times world champion and championship leader, Tim Gajser, has 24 points over three time world champion, Jorge Prado, who has 14 points over five time world champion, Jeffrey Herlings.
AMA champ, Jeff Emig says he will take momentum over points every time in a title run-in and Jeffrey Herlings certainly has that momentum, winning 9 of the last 15 moto’s including qualifying races, after stepping up the speed over the last couple of month’s. Herlings is the shark in water chasing everyone else figuratively and literally, but even Herlings says he would swap his position for Tim Gajser.
This is still Tim Gajser’s title to lose. He has the biggest margin for error, but the door of opportunity was forced ajar in Lommel. He can’t make a mistake now. Sweden has to go well so he can afford to lose a few points in the Arnhem sand. If Herlings or Prado win in Sweden, it will be huge for their belief in their title chances and put heavy pressure on Gajser.
Gajser can afford to lose 5 points per GP to Herlings and still win the title – but in theory if Herlings wins every moto including qualifying races from here on in, and Gajser gets second every time out, Herlings wins by 4 points!
Of course that is unlikely to happen with Jorge Prado in the mix. With Jorge’s starts and speed and only 24 points back, Gajser can’t just focus on Herlings, he has two threats swarming him and Tim can only afford to lose three points per round on the Spaniard. And, when you consider both Herlings and Prado have had a DNF, it underlines just how close this championship is.
Gajser has been so fast and consistent this year, with no big mistakes and no major bike issues but, generally, across a season one of the two issues affect at least one moto in a season, Gajser will be praying the law of averages don’t apply this season!
This is crunch time and Gajser has to stop the bleeding in Sweden to give him margin forthright last five rounds. Herlings and Prado have to beat Gajser every time the gate drops and Herlings is coming to Sweden with an improved KTM after an upgrade post Lommel to try and help those starts, which are still his biggest weakness.
But the speed is there now, not just in Lommel but also the hard pack as we saw in Loket, last to fourth with two crashes and still within sight of the leaders. Herlings is rewinding the clock to prime time and Prado is also on top form, he probably beats every other rider on the planet at Lommel. Jorge rode pretty much perfect at Lommel and it went a bit under the radar thanks to that man Herlings!
Both are primed and ready to attack right now. Tim Gajser needs to fight back and Sweden is his chance to show what he can do on his preferred hard pack. The ball is in Gajser’s court this weekend but he has to hold serve against the best returners in the game.
Who can perform the best under pressure? We are about to find out.
