It’s the question everyone is asking entering AMA 450 Supercross series in 2025, and, as of yet, no-one has the definitive answer! Jett Lawrence dominates the talk so much that even the other title contenders are talking publicly about having to beat Jett and get on his level in order to win the title. Jett Lawrence is the reference point and everyone knows it from fans, media and his competition. He has a target on his back.
The next question is can they improve enough to challenge him enough time to beat him to the title? If there is a chink in Jett Lawrence armour, it might be the 2025 Honda isn’t quite set-up how Lawrence wants it just yet, the early rounds may be a door slightly ajar for the likes of Chase Sexton, Eli Tomac, Cooper Webb and maybe even a Ken Roczen or Hunter Lawrence if he can set-up the Honda to his liking quicker than Jett can!
The hope for everyone else is this, they all should be better and faster than last year but they all need to come out swinging and not let Jett win A1 like last season to set the tone and the confidence. They need to show him early they have the speed and ability to execute under pressure.
Eli Tomac is coming into this season in a much better place, it’s his final year with nothing to lose and everything to gain . He just came off the WSX title, which is never a bad thing for confidence, he knows the bike and said in interviews he thinks he can still be the guy but admitted the target is Jett Lawrence. Tomac looks to have all the pieces of the puzzle again, but is even his A game enough to beat Jett Lawrence who caught and passed him in SMX and at the MXoN. Tomac needs beast mode to stand a chance but he might just have it.

Chase Sexton says if he is at his best he believes, no one can beat him but Sexton still has to show that best form on a supercross track on his KTM. If he can get back to that raw speed on the Honda, then he will have a chance, but has he really got the KTM finally sorted to show that level? We will see a much better Chase Sexton, but will it be good enough and even if the raw speed is there, will the starts be good enough to put him position to battle Jett Lawrence every week with those Honda’s known for their starting prowess. KTM aren’t known for their starts unless Jorge Prado is on the bike! In addition to all of that KTM is not in the best place financially so mentally for Sexton that is another thing in his mind, that really, he will have to try and not think about whatever the future holds for Sexton with KTM and that won’t be easy, it is hard enough to beat Jett Lawrence without having KTM’s business future intertwined into your thinking. All the questions around Chase Sexton isn’t the rider himself, it’s the KTM bike and KTM’s future as a company.
Cooper Webb came out swinging at A1 last season, even in timed qualifying which isn’t usually his forte! That set the tone and Webb was great all year with maybe more raw speed that ever. Webb will need that raw speed again but is coming in, like Sexton, with a year of progress on the bike. Webb always knows how to work a championship, he is in it for the long haul, but can he have enough raw speed to keep his hooks in Jett Lawrence down the stretch to really unleash that title mentality where anything goes in the final couple of rounds. If he can keep it close early, Webb will be the guy to keep an eye on late in the race and late in the season!

Don’t forget Hunter Lawrence! The Aussie should be in this group this season but he often is unfairly in the shadow of his brother despite his own individual success. And really, after a strong rookie season of his own, especially as the season went on, Hunter has got himself to the level to really be a factor in the championship, especially if he can get a race win early. Of all the names mentioned, Hunter knows the level Jett has every day, he is measuring himself against that and knows what he needs to do, he has the advantage there but like Jett, it may just be about how quickly he can get that Honda set-up.
You can never write off Ken Roczen, he is just to talented. When he is feeling the flow he can win anywhere, anytime but as we saw in WSX he is still testing that Kayaba suspension and never looked totally comfortable, hopefully December was a success in that department because an on form Ken Roczen adds a lot to the title battle and if he is comfortable, he can be in the mix.
Add in Aaron Plessinger who won his first supercross race last year and can win again, Jason Anderson who always has moments of brilliance and an interesting relationship with the Lawrence family that can always provide on-track fireworks, especially when Anderson is on his A game and up there at the front with the Aussie brothers! Justin Barcia is now training at the Bakers factory with former bitter rival Malcolm Stewart, who can always throw down some serious speed at times, as can Justin Cooper, he could be a real dark horse in the series this year after strong rookie year. He has experience and surely more believe heading into 2025.

Then there is Jorge Prado. On a technical and talent level, he is maybe the closest to Jett (along with Roczen), and he has the starts too! But he simply does not have the experience and that will take time. He has an experienced team and he is already feeling more comfortable on the Kawasaki than the GasGas from last year but he has missed some bike time already this off-season as he learns the game, the bike and the team. Prado has the stuff to be great in supercross but this season should be a building process, if he stays away from injury, expect him to get better and better as the season goes wrong. He is a special talent.
The field is stacked with talent and the Jett’s championship competition will be faster than last year, but the question remains will they be fast enough to beat Jett Lawrence. Jett probably doesn’t think so because let’s not forget he is younger than all of his competition, has shown an amazing ability to adapt to a less than perfect bike before and is brilliant under pressure combined with an incredible level of skill and control on the bike.
He is the total package and now he is now fueled by the haters and empowered by his Aussie fans. His competition will have to find a level they have not shown before but they are willing to go there. They are desperate to find a way to beat Jett Lawrence.