AMA: We predict 2025 450cc Supercross

Jonathan McCready: His rivals should be better but will they able to be have improved enough to challenge Jett Lawrence for the title? That’s the big question that everyone else has to answer. Webb has another year on the Yamaha, Sexton another year on the KTM and Tomac looks to be back to his best and firing on all cylinders, they all can wins races and know how to win a 450 Supercross title but even they know they have to look at Jett Lawrence as the reference, not each other, and prove to themselves they can beat the Aussie super talent straight up more than once.

Until they do, this is Jett Lawrence title to lose, he may have some issues with the 2025 Honda, but even then, Jett is so good he is usually able to adapt, he just doesn’t really have a weaknesses. He wants to win every race and that may be a bit of stretch with the deep competition in 2025. With Tomac, Webb, Sexton, Hunter Lawrence, Aaron Plessinger, Jason Anderson all more than capable of winning races and maybe even the quiet speedster, Justin Cooper, with another year under his belt becoming an increasing factor up front. But it will be a tall order to take it to Jett every week.

Ken Roczen has immense talent who can never be counted out and Hunter Lawrence could be a dark horse in the title race. With Eli Tomac have nothing to lose and everything to gain, Cooper Webb and Chase Sexton are incredibly motivated and you feel they both have the eye of the tiger (but is Sexton’s KTM up to the task?). The competition and quality is there to push Jett to the max, however, they all have to prove they can run with Jett Lawrence and beat him, for everyone, including themselves and Jett himself, to believe they can win the title.

As it stands, Jett Lawrence is the runaway favourite and if anyone wants a shot at it, they will have to strike early to at least try and put some pressure on the defending champ. They cannot let Jett Lawrence win A1 and grab the momentum and even more confidence early. They will be no easing into this championship, the rest have to attack Jett on that new Honda straight away.

And Jorge Prado? We should see steady improvement from the Spanish talent and I expect him to get closer to the top guys as the season goes on. The talent is there to be in the mix at the front in supercross, it will just take time and patience. Top ten working into top fives by the end of the year would be a strong opening supercross season on a new bike and team.

Andy McKinstry: Supercross is back this weekend and it is stacked like usual. There are plenty of riders capable of winning a main event if they bring their A game and everything goes to plan in one particular main event for them. For me, Jett Lawrence is going to take some stopping in terms of the championship but I don’t particularly agree with the notion his competition have to stop him winning round one. The last time I checked there’s seventeen rounds of the series and whoever wins A1 won’t necessarily go on to win the title – never mind not picking up an injury over the long season – there will be plenty of injury victims in Supercross. 

Now the one thing I do agree with if Jett wins the first round and then goes on a winning run at the start of the season it could spell trouble for the rest. But I can see the likes of Tomac and Sexton get their fair share of main event wins this year. Who can be the most consistent and avoid drama free nights? 

Eli Tomac seems in a good place at the moment, I am backing him to win A1 and also backing him to be a championship threat but I just can’t look past Jett for the title, the kid is truly special. Let’s see what the season brings, there should be plenty of twists and turns along the way.