Jeffrey Herlings has won more Grand Prix races than anyone in history and will probably keep extending that record to a number that remains untouchable for the next few generations – but the big question remains – can he stay healthy for the whole season to win his sixth world title and tie Joel Robert in the record books? As usual with Herlings, if he stays healthy he is probably the favourite to win, that speed is still there, or at least close enough to prime Herlings to get the job done. Herlings looks way ahead of where he was last year coming into the season, so expect a much stronger Herlings from the start. His smart approach didn’t even work last year after the back luck in France with the goggles and bike issues before the crash in Germany – all just as he was closing in on the red plate.
So, will Herlings go back to his instincts of just going for it most motos? I think we will – but within reason. Herlings told us at Hawkstone we are likely to see a bit of old Herlings and smart Herlings this year, so expect more GP wins but if it’s too risky he will be able to settle for a podium/top five. Herlings just has to stay safe through the first couple of rounds and then move in when the sand hits and he has a few races under his belt – that will be the litmus test of how much prime time speed he has left and how close the rest can get. If he stays fit he still has to be the favourite – and his starts look good too!
But Jorge Prado still ticks every box and it’s why he has the MXGP title. He has speed but only shows the max level when he needs it and last year he rarely needed to show it. Good everywhere, with the best technique, he calculates risk at all times and with his great starts he rarely has to panic and ride on the edge. Prado has everything he needs to defend again but as things stand, you have to presume Gajser and Herlings last the full season so Prado might have to show that reserve speed he didn’t need last season and, if it’s his last year in the MXGP, he will want to go out on top, not as the third place guy behind Gajser and Herlings. I wouldn’t question Prado’s motivation this year, if anything the move to the States will make him want to win even more and prove he can beat a healthy Herlings and Gajser in potentially his last season against them – what a statement that would be!
The points on the Saturday qualifying races have helped Prado hugely as well – and they remain for 2024. His brilliant starts are perfect for the new Saturday format and already gave him a buffer over his rivals many times heading into Sunday. He controlled the entire series last year and the rest won’t want to let that happen in 2024! It also look like he has still had enough time to switch to motocross mode after supercross – he looked really fast in his one race in Spain chasing down Fernandez after their collision, probably showing his real speed he usually keep hidden after not being too happy with the move Riben made! Jorge should be starting the series strong despite a late start to his mx prep – and that intensity from supercross might actually help his MXGP skills as well!
As things stand, going by the off-season races, Tim Gajser, is the fastest man in MXGP going into Argentina – and he’s always awesome on that track anyway! The new bike looks to suit Tim perfectly, and he looks way better already than he did last season after him femur injury. Preparation is key and Tim has had his full winter now, an improved Honda and he looks ready to rock! Motivation will be high, he never really got the chance to defend the title last year and he has never beaten Herlings for a title either when JH has remained healthy. Tim also always seems to find a way to improve every season, that’s what makes 2024 so interesting, this might just be the best version of Tim Gajser we have ever seen!
A bit like Herlings and also a five time champ, let’s not forget, Tim has to stay away from the big mistakes to keep Prado from collecting the points even one or two poor motos give the consistent machine that Jorge is points you don’t want to let him have. But as things stand, Tim is the guy to beat heading into 2024 on speed based on pre-season!
Romain Febvre has been so close to a second world title in recent year, even after that nasty broken leg just a few weeks after the title showdown in Mantova, Febvre has come back as good as ever and a title contender yet again. There is no quit in Febvre and he is still the best in the world on tracks with no traction. He looks totally comfortable on the Kawasaki and with his starts strong the majority of the time, Febvre has everything going for him again in 2024. He is getting older but so far Febvre is showing no signs of slowing down. Febvre should be right in the mix of the world title fight again this season.
Jeremy Seewer always comes on strong late in the season but it would be great to see that form at the start of the season so he can be in points contention from the get-go. Yes, he is still adapting to the new Kawasaki, but he looks to be on pace in the hard pack and by the final moto at a treacherous Hawkstone he on pace with the top men again in the sand. Seewer just needs to have some decent luck in the first couple of rounds as he finds he feet and not have a big moment like he did last year in Argentina to set him back.
Maxime Renaux has everything he need to challenge for the world title yet, if anything, he is still a bit underrated. Maybe similar to Kay de Wolf in MX2, starts are Renaux’s biggest weakness because on track the guy excels everywhere. He even performed well at the MXoN and he wasn’t even fully fit. Due to injury we didn’t really get to see Renaux at his best in 2023, he apparently still has a couple of niggles heading into Argentina but if he can get through the opening rounds there or thereabouts and get the starts he needs to run with Prado and the rest, Renaux has the skills to be a title contender.
We just need all these guys to stay healthy for an epic year and when you add in the likes of Geerts, Fernandez and more it could be an unbelievable season because the depth is remarkable yet again in MXGP of guys that can win motos and podium.
Article: Jonathan McCready
