Jonathan McCready: For the first time in a long, long time the 450 class in the USA is deep with talent and has no stand out championship favourite! In years past the top six to eight were quality with Eli Tomac still clearly guy to beat but this season with no-one out with injury and the 250 graduates making their presence felt, there are up to a dozen riders that could make a podium and maybe six or seven that will think they have a serious shot at this title!
Has Eli Tomac got the motivation to win again? Is defending champion, Zach Osborne, healthy enough to compete for the title again? Can Webb and Roczen get their mind on motocross after a grueling supercross title fight? Will Cianciarulo and Sexton be even faster in their second 450 season and can Ferrandis win in his 450 rookie season? Those seven are for me the guys that have a shot at the title and it wouldn’t surprise me if any of them won it!
Ferrandis might have been the favourite for me but he needs his starts to improve because coming through a top ten of quality factory riders won’t be easy. Chase Sexton ticks all the boxes and I expect him to be in title contention if he can stay on two wheels, his speed, motivation and fitness are all there. Roczen’s fitness is a question mark and he doesn’t seem confident in his speed while Cooper Webb says he’s motivated but admits he has only ridden outdoors for two so they both might not come out swinging at Pala. Zach Osborne’s back injury makes him a bit of a doubt at being 100% as well. Adam Cianciarulo is apparently flying at the test track but like Sexton needs to cut out the mistakes – that all leaves a fit Eli Tomac looking in pole position for me if he wants to win as bad as he says he does. But like Ferrandis, starts could be key.
Add in Jason Anderson, Aaron Plessinger, Max Anstie, Justin Barcia, Dean Wilson as well as Christian Craig and the top 12/13 will be going seriously fast making good starts imperative even for the title contenders!
Championship
- Eli Tomac
- Chase Sexton
- Dylan Ferrandis
The 250 class despite Dylan Ferrandis leaving, promises to be an exciting and aggressive affair! Jeremy Martin should start as the favourite after coming second last year and now being back on the bike to beat in the Star Racing Yamaha. Martin has the experience of winning titles before and when he gets his teeth into the championship he will be hard to shift. But Justin Cooper is on form, won the supercross title and will be carrying big confidence into outdoors. Cooper has consistently shown he has the raw speed to match anyone but he needs to keep that speed and form for all 12 rounds to beat Martin. Austin Forkner has always had speed but he can’t keep it on two wheels – that will be the challenge for him this year but he should be classed as a title contender if he stays healthy all year.
Then you have the Lawrence brothers! Yes, Jett is a mega talent and should be a contender this year for the title, he is maturing at a rapid rate, enjoys the pressure and learns quickly but don’t sleep on Hunter. The eldest Lawrence can be as good as anyone in the 250 class outdoors on his day, his MX2 GP experience and confidence from supercross should hold him in good stead this year but a bit like Austin Forkner, while the speed is there, Hunter needs to stay healthy for all 12 rounds and limit the mistakes. But with another years experience this might be the moment when the brothers both settle down and really threaten for the title.
Colt Nichols should be coming in hot after his supercross title as should youngster Nate Thrasher who came from nowhere to win two races in supercross and is tipped to be rapid outdoors. Jo Shimoda can’t be counted out and neither can RJ Hampshire or Cameron McAdoo and don’t forget about Ty Masterpool in what will be a hotly contested class in the top ten but it’s still hard to go against Jeremy Martin on that blisteringly fast Yamaha!
Championship
- Jeremy Martin
- Justin Cooper
- Jett Lawrence
Andy McKinstry: It would be fair to say that heading into the AMA Nationals which get underway this weekend, that for the first time in a long time there’s no clear favourite in the 450 class which means it should be an exciting season. Usually when it comes to Motocross it’s hard to look past Eli Tomac or Ken Roczen but since winning his Supercross title you could maybe question Tomac’s motivation. Also, the young guns such as Cianciarulo, Sexton and Ferrandis are all very fast and pretty fearless.
We haven’t even mentioned Zach Osborne yet who remarkably won the title last year but will he be healthy enough to run at the very front from the opening round? It remains to be seen. Since making the jump up to the 450cc, Cooper Webb seems to have focused more on Supercross and taking two titles who can blame him but could this be the year he shows his full potential outdoors in the 450cc class? There’s no doubt he certainly has the will to win, no one can question that.
For me, the three real dark horses going into the season are Adam Cianciarulo, Dylan Ferrandis and Chase Sexton. However, all three of them have mistakes in them while Tomac’s experience might just come in handy when it comes to the title chase. Ferrandis’ problems are starts, he’s usually buried and then that can lead to crashes because he’s pushing so hard to come through the pack – if he can get good starts there’s no reason why he can’t be right there, he has the speed! As for Sexton, he has such a great style, it’s great watching him but for the title Tomac gets my vote, just about…
Championship:
- Eli Tomac
- Adam Cianciarulo
- Dylan Ferrandis
As for the 250 class, I’m fully behind Jett Lawrence! Rewinding a few years when he was just a 14 year old in the GP paddock beating riders twice his age in the EMX250 class, he’s a wonderkid. Now at 17 years old he’s still incredibly young but he’s incredibly fast and has such a good style. As long as he remembers to be smart and knows he doesn’t have to go 1-1 every weekend he’s my vote for the title, consistency is key. Don’t discount his brother, Hunter either, by the way!
One rider I am interested in seeing this outdoor season is Austin Forkner, he has the speed and it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see him dominate round one but the problem is can he last the season? The most important for the Pro Circuit Kawasaki rider this outdoor season is to stay fit even if he doesn’t win the title but if he does last the season he won’t be far away, in my opinion.
The Star Yamaha guys will be fast make no mistake about that, both Jeremy Martin and Justin Cooper should certainly win races and they’re a bit more experienced compared to their championship rivals.
Championship:
- Jett Lawrence
- Austin Forkner
- Justin Cooper
Image: Align media