Our predictions: MXGP 2024

Ahead of the 2024 MXGP and MX2 World Championships getting underway this weekend, we’ll have a go at predicting the unpredictable!

Jonathan McCready:  The MX2 class is not easy to pick this year with so much young talent ready to step up and achieve their dream. But for Argentina and the title I have went for Simon Langenfelder. Last year he looked about to hit his best form after his win until injury hit and yet he still came back strong despite losing his title hopes! Don’t forget, very nearly beat Vialle at Ernee in the MX2 heat until he got zapped on the last lap. It might be Langenfelder’s time to shine with his raw speed, consistency on all conditions, and usually great starts. But Lucas Coenen might be the fastest guy in the class, if it clicks all year watch out, because he is special – but can he avoid the crashes he had last year? If he can, the rest might need to step it up!

Andrea Adamo is the new Ryan Dungey, so consistent, the Italian will be there all year around the podium/top five but he will probably need to win more than last year and defending a title is usually harder. But those points will keep adding up for Adamo, and he should be there at the end.

I left Kay de Wolf out of the top three in the championship, but it doesn’t feel right! The kid is so talented, but his height and size make it more difficult to get consistent starts and it is hard to come from tenth every moto. If he can fix those starts, he will be a big title challenger. His hard pack riding is excellent, and his sand is exceptional, but those starts are key.

Thibault Benistant could also challenge, but he will need to find the form they had at the end of 2022 – then the title is within reach.

In MXGP, the Marquez of motocross is still Jeffrey Herlings. Until he can be beaten on raw speed, he is still the favourite, and he is better than he was this time last year! Once he gets the first couple of rounds out of the way Herlings will come on strong especially with these improved starts – he just has to stay healthy for all 20 rounds and that’s his most difficult challenge against such a high quality field. 95% won’t get it done.

Tim Gajser might be the fastest outdoors right now on that 2025 Honda, and even Jago Geerts has been in awe of his speed. I expect Tim to win Argentina, but he can make the odd crash that hurts him every now and then, and with Prado around, that can be a problem.

Prado is just so smart and will be very motivated to be Gajser and Herlings straight up before he (probably) heads to the USA in 2025. What a mic drop that would be! Prado’s consistency is hard to beat, Gajser and Herlings will have to beat him on raw speed and try not to make any mistakes. That’s a fine wire to walk, especially with Prado usually not always showing his full speed unless he needs it. And they still have to battle a flying Febvre, Maxime Renaux who is more than capable of winning this title just like Febvre and a motivated Jeremy Seewer along with super talented rookie Jago Geerts  – the pace and intensity will be HIGH!

PLEASE JUST STAY INJURY FREE EVERYONE

Jonathan McCready (Gate Drop MX)

Andy McKinstry: Jezz, this is really hard this year! Let’s start with MX2, I just can’t look past Simon Langenfelder, who is the real deal. He’s improved a lot over the last couple of years, and he doesn’t have many weaknesses anymore. He can ride sand and hard pack to a very high level. His starts are usually pretty solid, and he is consistent. If he stays injury free, he’ll be hard to stop in my opinion.

Lucas Coenen is really really fast and whilst I wouldn’t be surprised if he was to win the title I think it might just be a year to early but don’t underestimate his speed, that won’t be a problem. Again, Adamo knows what it takes to win and is super consistent but I feel starts are his weakness and could be a problem if the majority of the heavy hitters remain injury free but if he can improve his starts he won’t be far away – his sand riding has improved a lot.

I can’t believe I’ve left Kay de Wolf out of my top three for both Argentina and championship because he’s a rider I really rate and if he was to win in Argentina I wouldn’t be shocked! Similar to Adamo, starts don’t seem to be his strength, so if they don’t improve, that could be a problem. Thibault Benistant, I am really intrigued to see what form of him we get as on his day he is superb!

In MXGP, I just can’t look past Tim Gajser, he was my favourite before even the pre season races and he looked in superb form during them as well so no reason to change my mind on that one. Prado’s starts are so impressive, which means he puts himself in great positions and is hard to beat – don’t be surprised to see him win plenty of qualifying races.

Ruben Fernandez I probably wouldn’t normally predict for third, but at Argentina, he is unreal. He surprised everyone winning the opening round there last year to get the red plate and he loves the track. I think he’ll get good starts on the new Honda too which will help.

Jeffrey Herlings already looks much better going into the 2024 season than he did twelve months ago, he’ll win GP’s and if he can stay injury free challenge for the title but if he succeeds it’ll be his toughest one yet.

It’s hard to believe I’ve left Romain Febvre and Maxime Renaux both out of my top threes as I rate them so highly – that’s the level of MXGP for you – crazy!

Andy McKinstry (Gate Drop MX)