Andy McKinstry: This year is tough to predict! I wish I had a crystal ball that told me in advance which riders will get injured as it would make things a little bit easier to predict. We have already saw two injuries in the 250cc class before the season has even started and Supercross is pretty unforgiving – one small mistake can be costly but hopefully all the heavy hitters can last the season as that’ll make things very exciting.
Another thing that is very important with Supercross are good starts so they’re going to be key as everyone at the front is fast – it’s going to be tough to come through a pack after a bad start.
The results are so hard to predict this year but I’ve gone with Justin Barcia to win the opening round and this would be the fourth time he’d do it. It’s hard enough to win the opening round once never mind four times but he’ll be raring to go this weekend but let’s be honest – there’s about ten riders capable of winning on any given day.
The one thing I’m looking forward to seeing the most this year is Eli Tomac on the Yamaha and having Dylan Ferrandis as a team mate – things could get very heated there but I expect both to win plenty of races especially considering the job Star Racing have done running the 450cc setup.
As for the championship winner, it’s so difficult to predict. After Cooper Webb’s underwhelming start to his 450cc career on the Yamaha not too many people would have thought he’d win one Supercross title and he’s now got two to his name. Webb is very ruthless and just loves to win so I’m backing him to win another title but it’s all to play for and the likes of Tomac, Roczen, Ferrandis and even Musquin will be motivated to do the business.
Top five – A1 prediction:
- Justin Barcia
- Eli Tomac
- Dylan Ferrandis
- Cooper Webb
- Ken Roczen
Top five – Championship prediction:
- Cooper Webb
- Dylan Ferrandis
- Eli Tomac
- Ken Roczen
- Marvin Musquin
Jonathan McCready: There are going to be a lot of disappointed riders after A1 because with the amount of quality in the field, some of them, despite how good they are feeling in pre-season, won’t even end up in the top five! It makes predictions very difficult but that’s all part of the fun.
Championship-wise it’s hard to look past Webb for me, he is resilient, determined and seems very happy with the new KTM. He might not always be the fastest but he is usually the most race-savvy and gets decent starts most of the time. The man who might beat him in straight up speed is Eli Tomac, that’s if he can get out of the gate and adapt quickly to the Yamaha, but until we see that old speed and better starts, as things stand, I think Webb pips Eli to the title.
Third is difficult. Ken Roczen should be a title contender and maybe even a title winner if he can get his health better – but then he got sick in December so, with that health question mark in mind, I am going to put his teammate Chase Sexton third. Fast, dedicated, determined and precise on the bike, I think this will be a big year for the hungry young American. I will go Roczen for fourth on account of his health issues (but if he’s healthy he might just win the whole thing) and then Dylan Ferrandis in fifth. I think the French rider will have a lot of speed like Sexton but Dylan isn’t always the best starter and makes the odd mistake so his bad races might just put him out of title contention but I think if he gets away he will be a threat to win a main event most weekends. The teammate rivalry with Tomac will also be interesting to keep an eye especially if both end up in title contention!
Unbelievably, that rules out Justin Barcia, Marvin Musqin and Jason Anderson out of the top five – even though I think they will be very fast this year and easily in contention for podiums and maybe even get a race win. Their experience might see them survive the war of attrition too. Then you have the likes of Malcolm Stewart and Aaron Plessinger who are with Aldon Baker and will expect to go to the next level. The start and first turn will be vital this year!
To win Anaheim I had been thinking of Adam Cianciarulo, but the Kawasaki rider is already injured and only back on the bike, but I think he has the Sexton level of speed once healthy and another to keep an eye for the A1. Talking of Seston, I think he might just come out firing and take his first 450 win! The next generation are hungry to get in amongst the three title regulars of Tomac, Roczen and Webb and they need to show their level quickly to vault themselves into that conversation and in the minds of, ‘the big three,’ this might just be Sexton’s moment to step up.
Top five – A1 prediction:
- Chase Sexton
- Eli Tomac
- Cooper Webb
- Dylan Ferrandis
- Marvin Musquin
Top five – Championship prediction:
- Cooper Webb
- Eli Tomac
- Chase Sexton
- Ken Roczen
- Dylan Ferrandis
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Image: Cudby