2026 Supercross predictions

Jonathan McCready: If Jett Lawrence was racing he would be the overwhelming favourite but the ultra-talented Aussie is unfortunately on the sidelines again and in a weird way it has blown the championship wide open!

There is, to my mind, a top five who are all capable to varying degrees of beiing in the title hunt. Ken Roczen has the talent and has proven he can win races, an errant backmarker ruined his momentim last year but he knows he has the stuff to challenge, especially with factory Suzuki in Japan now more involved. If Roczen wins this title on a kickstart Suzuku after all his injuries, it would be the feel good story of the year!

Hunter Lawrence was Jett Lawrence biggest challenger late in 2025, but is a bit more unproved in Supercross on the 450 thanks to injury, but there is no reason to think Hunter can’t be in the mix given his outdoors and SMX speed, if he wins one early, watch out. Lawrence has the technical skills to win and once he fully believes in himself and proves he can win, the sky is the limit for Hunter.

Eli Tomac, like Hunter has to stay away from injury, he also has to be able to adapt to the KTM in every condition but, assuming that all happens Tomac has the best chance of a title run since 2023 and that ill-timed achilles injury. Starts have also not been consistent for Tomac and that is something he will need to rectify this year to give himself the best shot at the title. Revenge is still on his mind to get that title he missed, he knows how to win, the team knows how to win, let’s see if it is a winning combination.

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It is hard to seperate Webb and Sexton as the clear favourite, Webb has the championship mindset and just raises his performance under pressure when the win is in sight. it’s the sign of true champion and he has the race craft and mind games to back it up, Webb can win in multiple ways and everyone else knows it.

Sexton has always had the eyebrow raising raw speed, even if he is still to prove that on the Kawasaki, however, he came so close to winning on a KTM he didn’t like that it is hard to imagine him worse on the Kawasaki, unless team green have a season like 2025…let’s hope not!

With Plessinger, Anderson, Stewart and Justin Cooper all also in the mix and the intrugue around Jorge Prado, it should be another capitvating season and the championship could go right down to the wire again.

If Sexton has learnt from a tough experience last year, he might just have enough to win the title this time over the steely determination and craft of Webb and Tomac, he is the younger guy who should be in his prime – but how he will adapt to the Kawasaki is a still huge question mark!

All five and more know this is their shot at it before Jett returns in 2027 alongside Deegan, as the younger generation try to take over. It could be now or never for some lining up behind that gate at A1.